Will China steel exports be free fall ？

The day before, Goldman analysts wrote in the email report, 2018 Chinese steel exports may be reduced to 50 million ~6000 million tons, the previous forecast of 60 million ~8000 million tons. The analyst believes that the firm to capacity and domestic demand improvement is the two leading cause of reduced export volume. According to statistics, in 2016, China's steel exports amounted to 1.085 tons.

According to data released by the Chinese customs administration, in January ~5 months, China's total export volume of steel 34 million 190 thousand tons, down 25.7%. On the current steel export situation, if the second half of steel exports did not usher in explosive growth, the author estimates that this year's steel exports will be about 80 million tons, 26% less than in 2016. And according to this proportion continue to predict, in 2018 steel exports will be 59 million tons, happened to fall in Goldman Sachs analysts forecast range.

Will China's steel export really continue the trend of "free fall"?

As things stand, this is unlikely.

Plate is the main force to push up export steel prices.

At present, despite the downward trend in steel exports, but the amount of exports in an increasing state. This means that the total amount of our steel exports has decreased, but the price has gone up. China Customs statistics show that in the first 5 months of this year, China's total export value of steel was 158 billion 856 million 550 thousand yuan, an increase of 17.7%. This means that steel prices per unit weight rose by 57.5% compared with the same period last year. According to statistics released by the Chinese customs administration, the first 4 months, China's angle steel and steel exports totaled 1 million 410 thousand tons, a decrease of 13.6%, the cumulative export value of 5 billion 5 million 410 thousand yuan, an increase of 23.9%. The first 4 months, the total export of 14 million 850 thousand tons of plates, a decrease of 4.8%; cumulative export value of 67 billion 370 million 920 thousand yuan, an increase of 50.3%. The first 4 months, the cumulative export of 640 thousand tons of wire, a decrease of 10.6%, the cumulative export value of 3 billion 998 million 860 thousand yuan, an increase of 7.2%.

Calculated accordingly, in January ~4 months, the unit weight of angle steel and steel prices rose by 43.4%, the unit weight of plate prices rose by 57.9%, the unit weight of wire prices rose 19.9%.

This shows that the first half of the year, exports, plate price rises greatly, the export price of steel plate is the rise of the main; second, behind steel exports decline, not China's iron and steel enterprises competitiveness in the fall, but lead to other reasons.

Multiple factors lead to a decline in China's steel exports

Specifically, the author believes that the following factors led to the decline in China's steel exports:

First, since the beginning of this year, the domestic market prices of steel rose, especially because of low raw material prices, steel prices generally rebound. In this case, more steel resources have been exported back to china. At the same time, steel prices in overseas orders will also be more reference to domestic prices, overseas orders for the price has been improved.

Second, the international steel market boom rebounded. Data from the forward-looking database showed that in May, the international composite steel price index was 161.3 points, an increase of 11.6 points over the same period, an increase of 7.7%. Steel prices in the international market have also warmed up the overseas orders for Chinese steel enterprises.

Third, the same period in 2016, China's steel export prices are low, an increase in export prices is reasonable.

Therefore, the author believes that, with the decline of steel exports, the competitiveness of China's steel products in overseas markets is declining, and the reasons for the gradual decline are inadequate.

China's steel enterprises need a certain amount of exports.

And make preparations for a protracted war.

Although the export price of steel is still rising, but the author also believes that in the near future, steel exports will remain at a low level. However, as a whole, maintaining a certain amount of exports is more advantageous to China's steel enterprises. According to customs statistics, in May, China's steel exports 6 million 980 thousand tons, an increase of 490 thousand tons, an increase of 7.5%. At the same time, steel prices are rising pressure.

First of all, at present, the steel market in the international market is in a state of shock rebound, the latter trend has great uncertainty.

Secondly, after entering in June, although the pace of depreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has slowed, but later depreciation pressures still exist, once the RMB began to depreciate, then the export of steel prices could return to the downstream channel.

Again, despite the recent steel export prices rose significantly, such as steel export price of 0 / ton, hot-rolled coil of the export price of 0 / ton, but for export enterprises, the actual profit is not much. According to the author's investigation and understanding, some enterprises steel exports (excluding relevant freight) or even a zero profit.

Finally, dished out the "America first" trade rules in Trump, including Pakistan, many countries of the anti-dumping investigation Chinese steel, steel Chinese despite strong competitiveness, but also will encounter greater resistance. In the face of the export situation of steel enterprises change constantly like cloud and wave, would do to fight a protracted war, to obtain a more broad development space by actively adjust the industrial structure of exports.

In short, China steel in the overseas market competitiveness is increasing, especially the board by foreign "buy" the market recognition of the China steel sense has been formed; with steel enterprises in our country to deal with trade friction in terms of more experience, exchange rate changes, Chinese steel exports will rebound in May, the data from the can to reflect this point.